Cavala: California Voters� Initial �Take� On Redistricting Scheme Presages Its Defeat

By Bill Cavala
CaliforniaProgressReport.com
July 22, 2008

Although fewer than a fourth of California�s likely voters have heard of Prop 11, Governor Schwarzenegger�s redistricting scheme, almost three times that many are prepared to offer their opinion on their vote. 42% would support the measure and
30% would oppose it.

Initiatives that are ultimately successful usually begin with majority support or better. Initiatives that begin with 58% of the electorate either negative or dubious have tough sledding ahead.

When Democrats learn that the role of their party has been reduced from the majority position it won in both houses of the Legislature to a subordinate position on the Governor�s �Commission�, they will doubt the fairness of the proposed change.

When members of minority groups learn that civil rights leaders oppose this proposed �Commission� because it is unlikely to fairly represent people of color, they will doubt the fairness of the proposed change.

When the people who voted out the Republican Congressional Majority and replaced them with Speaker Pelosi and her allies realize that the Speaker and the Democratic delegation oppose Prop 11, they will doubt the fairness of the proposed change.

When voters of any political stripe realize that the rules and procedures of the proposed �commission� make it a virtual certainty that Judges will be forced to enter the thicket of politics and make the final call, they will doubt the fairness of the proposed change (having rejected the use of Courts for redistricting innumerable times).

Republican lawmakers have a difficult time raising special interest money when they cannot make a case that they will win a majority in the Legislature. That is the real objective of this initiative. To make the GOP more credible with the lobbyists in the capitol. Why would voters want to join in this effort?

Jaundiced journalists, who bear personal animus against those who have managed to win elections, join with selected public figures with personal axes to grind and lobbyists of special interest groups paid to support such �reforms� to form an ugly coalition that fronts the Governor�s scheme. They believe, with enough money, they can fool enough of the people some of the time and pass Prop 11.

The Field Poll suggests they are wrong in their assessment.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker�s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years. He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960�s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker. He now manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.